Within 45 minutes of the polls closing in Virginia, it was apparent that Obama was doing well enough in predominantly white, western Virginia to carry the state. The only outstanding questions were black turnout and Obama's margins in northern Virginia.
Although the exit polls indicate that black support for Obama fell from 95 to 93 percent and turnout held at 13 percent of the electorate, a quick glance at the results map shows that black turnout or support for the president might have exceeded '08 levels. Compare the map of areas where Obama did better than he did in '08 (marked by blue) with a map of the black population in the United States. Unless white turnout fell in predominantly black areas, the strong correlation between Obama's gains and the presence of a large black population suggests that Obama did at least as well, if not better, than he did four years ago. As Harry Enten of the Guardian observed, the pre-election polls also showed an increase in black turnout.
Source: The New Republic | Nate Cohn
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